Australian Population Studies Volume 1 Number 1 (2017)

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Published:2017-11-19

ISSN:2208-8482

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    Introducing Australian Population Studies
    Wilson, Tom ; Charles-Edwards, Elin ; Corcoran, Jonathan (2017-11-19)
    Journal Article
    Editorial
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    International migration and employment growth in Australia, 2011-2016
    McDonald, Peter (2017-11-19)
    Journal Article
    Background:Immigration to Australia pre 1995 was largely low skilled. Recessions led to competition between low-skilled domestic workers and new immigrants and subsequent cuts in migration intakes. Historical changes in birth rates, increased participation in tertiary education, increasing numbers retiring and the relatively rapid restructuring of the skill level of labour demand combined to produce a skilled labour supply crisis in Australia from the mid-1990s. The permanent and temporary skilled migration policies established by the Australian Government from 1995 played an important role in meeting that labour demand, especially in the boom years of the first decade of the 21st century. Aims:This paper examines the impact of immigration on employment in Australia subsequent to the global financial crisis (GFC) for the five-year period from July 2011 to July 2016. Data and methods:Data for the paper are sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The paper uses survival methods to decompose the growth in employment in Australia in the five-year period from 2011 to 2016: (1) change in age and sex distribution in the absence of migration; (2) changes in employment participation rates by age and sex; (3) net migration by age and sex. Results:Immigration in response to strong labour demand has continued post GFC. From July 2011 to July 2016, employment in Australia increased by 738,800. Immigrants accounted for 613,400 of the total increase, population growth 98,900 and changes in employment participation only 26,500. Migration has had a very large effect on the age structure of employment with most new immigrant workers (595,300) being under 55 years. Conclusions:Research indicates that immigration provides major benefits to the Australian economy. However, as strong labour demand is likely to sustain migration at relatively high levels in coming years, it is incumbent upon governments to plan for the effects of rapid population growth on infrastructure and resources.
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    Alternative methods of determining the number of House of Representatives seats for Australia's territories
    Wilson, Tom ; Taylor, Andrew (2017-11-19)
    Journal Article
    Background:Population size determines the number of seats each Australian state and territory is entitled to in the House of Representatives. The Northern Territory (NT) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) were allocated two and three seats, respectively, in the August 2017 determination, but by very small margins. Both territories risk losing a seat at the next determination. This would result in them having considerably more people per member of parliament than any of the states. Aims:This paper (1) provides modelling to support the consideration of alternative rules for determining membership entitlement to the House of Representatives which does not disadvantage the NT and ACT and (2) presents population projections for future determinations under the current and alternative rules. Data and methods:Population projections for the states and territories were produced for three demographic scenarios. The resulting numbers of seats for the NT and ACT were calculated for each scenario under the current and proposed alternative seat entitlement rules. Results:Under the existing rules the NT and ACT would only keep their current number of seats at the next determination if they experienced higher net in-migration than in recent years. Under the alternative seat entitlement rules suggested, the NT and ACT would be very unlikely to lose any seats and would almost certainly gain seats in ensuing decades. Conclusions:There is a case for re-examining the way the states and territories are allocated seats in the House of Representatives.
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    A multiregional sources of growth model for school enrolment projections
    Raymer, James ; Biddle, Nicholas ; Guan, Qing (2017-11-19)
    Journal Article
    Background:Education planning requires accurate and efficient projection models. Current projection models either do not make use of all available information and are reliant on idiosyncratic expert judgement, or are too complex to be maintained and explained. Aims:To test whether a multiregional projection model performs better than current methodology in explaining and projecting school enrolments in a school system with student mobility. Data and methods:A multiregional cohort model was developed for projecting enrolments for multiple schools or districts simultaneously. For illustration, data were obtained for all government schools in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) for the years 2008-2016. Multiregional projections were compared with a cohort transition model and the ACT Education Directorate's own projections. Results:(i) There is great diversity in the sources of school enrolment growth that need to be accommodated in enrolment projections; and (ii) multiregional projections perform slightly better than traditional methods with less effort and more transparency. Conclusion:A sources of growth approach guides the understanding of enrolment change, which is critical for making informed projections.
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    Residential mobility in Australia and the United States: a retrospective study
    Bernard, Aude ; Forder, Peta ; Kendig, Hal ; Byles, Julie (2017-11-19)
    Journal Article
    Background:Levels of internal migration vary significantly between countries. Australia and the United States consistently record among the highest levels of migration anywhere in the world. Very little is known, however, about the factors underlying mobility differentials. We argue that this is because existing evidence is almost exclusively based on period measures applied to cross-sectional data. Aims:We seek to advance understanding of cross-national variations in levels of residential mobility by drawing on a newly proposed suite of cohort migration measures, coupled with the recent release of internationally comparable retrospective residential history data. Data and methods:Focusing on the early cohort of baby boomers born between 1947 and 1951, the paper examines residential mobility levels and patterns in early and mid-adulthood in Australia and the United States and compares them with 14 European countries. Differences in completed levels of residential mobility are assessed in terms of four components: the proportion of a cohort who moved at least once; mean age at first move; mean age at last move; and average interval between moves. Results:While cohort analysis confirms high levels of mobility in Australia and the United States, it does not support the notion of a common 'new world' mobility regime distinct from other advanced economies. Conclusion:A cohort perspective offers refined insights into population mobility. The increasing availability of retrospective survey data means that researchers can now apply cohort measures to a wide range of countries.
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    Comparing rural and regional migration patterns of Australian medical general practitioners with other professions: implications for rural workforce strategies
    Carson, Dean ; Punshon, Katherine ; McGrail, Matthew ; Kippen, Rebecca (2017-11-19)
    Journal Article
    Background:The shortage of professional workers in rural and regional Australia continues as a major policy challenge. There has been substantially more strategy investment for the medical general practitioner (GP) profession than for other professions, particularly at the start of their careers. Aims:To examine differences between domestic migration patterns of GPs and other professionals to rural and regional zones in Australia for younger, mid-life and older workers. Data and methods:Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2011 Census were used to examine five-year migration rates for professionals in five ABS occupational classifications: generalist medical practitioners (GPs); engineering professionals; legal professionals; education professionals; and other health professionals. Migration volumes were benchmarked for GPs and compared both for other professions and career stage. Results:GPs were less likely than other professionals to migrate from major urban to rural zones, regional to rural zones, or rural to regional zones. Younger GPs had the highest rural migration rates, while mid-life and older GPs were least likely to migrate to rural and regional zones. In contrast, increasingly age was associated positively with migration to rural zones for those in the other four professions. Conclusions:Despite concerted policy efforts to encourage more GPs to move to rural areas, overall rural migration rates for GPs are lower than for other professionals, especially for older workers. Further investigation of the links between GP migration patterns and workforce policies needs to be undertaken to inform the application or otherwise of workforce strategies used by other professions.
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    Urban, suburban and rural household density trends
    Lieske, Scott (2017-11-19)
    Journal Article
    DemoGraphics
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    Microsimulation for demography
    Lomax, Nik ; Smith, Andrew (2017-11-19)
    Journal Article
    Background: Microsimulation consists of a set of techniques for estimating characteristics and modelling change in populations of individuals. Aims:To demonstrate how microsimulation can be used by demographers who want to undertake population estimates and projections. Data and methods:We use data from the 2011 United Kingdom (UK) Census of population to create a synthetic population by age, sex and ethnic group. Static and dynamic microsimulations and the visualisation of results are undertaken using the statistical package R. The code and data used in the static and dynamic microsimulation are available via a GitHub repository. Results:A synthetic population in 2011 by age, sex and ethnicity was produced for the East London Borough of Tower Hamlets, estimated from two Census tables. A population projection was produced for each of these age, sex and ethnicity groups to 2021. We used a projection of the Bangladeshi population to visualise population growth by Middle-layer Super Output Area (MSOA) and to produce a population pyramid of estimates in 2021. Conclusions: We argue that microsimulation is an adaptable technique which is well suited to demography, for both population estimation and projection. Although our example is applied to the East London Borough of Tower Hamlets, the approach could be readily applied in Australia, or any other country.